Tokyo World Championships: Ethiopia and Kenya battle for marathon supremacy as outsiders lie in wait

Tokyo is not just hosting the World Athletics Championships from September 13 to 21: for one marathon, the city becomes the stage for a clash of titans. No fewer than 96 marathoners from 47 nations will take to the streets of the Japanese capital on the 15th at 12:30 a.m. French time. But behind the depth of the field, a handful of names stand out. These are men capable of making history and rewriting the record books. At the front of the line is a rivalry more than 30 years old: Ethiopia versus Kenya. The two giants of distance running arrive with formidable firepower.

Ethiopia’s powerhouse lineup

Deresa Geleta, the metronome

At 29, Deresa Geleta (2:02:38 PB, 2023, Valencia) is the leading figure in the Ethiopian camp. Ranked fifth in the world, he arrives as a genuine title contender. His strength is consistency: he has put together several marathons in the 2:03 to 2:04 range, placing him in the tradition of Haile Gebrselassie and Kenenisa Bekele. Never yet a medallist at a major championship, he will be looking to turn immense time-trial potential into world gold.

Tadese Takele, the dazzling youngster

His name is still mentioned as that of a “newcomer”, but Tadese Takele (23) has already clocked a 2:03:23 in London this season, making him the eighth-fastest performer in the world. A specialist in fast starts, he could be the man who blows the race apart around halfway. For many, he represents the changing of the guard in Ethiopian distance running.

Tesfaye Deriba, the dark horse

Often out of the spotlight, Tesfaye Deriba ran a solid 2:04:13 at last year’s Seoul Marathon. A strong runner with plenty of experience in major road races, he thrives on demanding courses. Tokyo could suit him perfectly if the weather turns difficult, with heat and humidity in play.

➜ Add up the personal bests of Ethiopia’s three leaders and the average comes out close to 2:03:45. Enough to give any pack plenty to worry about.

Kenya comes hunting

Vincent Kipkemoi Ngetich, the next big thing

He is only 26, but Vincent Kipkemoi Ngetich has already established himself among the very best. His 2:03:13 in Berlin in 2023 earned him a reputation as a prodigy. Able to sustain punishing speeds without showing signs of weakness, he recalls a certain Eliud Kipchoge in his early days. Tokyo could mark his arrival on the global stage.

Hillary Kipkoech, the wildcard

With a best of 2:04:45, Hillary Kipkoech embodies the classic unpredictable Kenyan profile. Capable of the sublime and the disastrous, he can turn a race into fireworks. His uphill attacks and sudden surges make him dangerous in a championship race where tactics matter every bit as much as raw speed.

Erick Kiplagat Sang and Kennedy Kimutai, Kenya’s outsiders

Behind the two headline names, Erick Kiplagat Sang (2:04:30) and Kennedy Kimutai (2:05:27) give Kenya formidable depth. In an attritional race, they could serve as lieutenants, grinding the pack down for their leaders.

The other contenders cannot be overlooked

Victor Kiplangat, the defending champion from Uganda

At the previous World Championships in 2023, he shone on the streets of Budapest, bringing home Uganda’s gold medal after a perfectly judged race and a finishing time of 2:08:53. With a personal best of 2:05:05, he will be determined to prove that he remains one of the best runners over the marathon distance.

Othmane El Goumri, Morocco’s model of consistency

At 33, Othmane El Goumri knows the drill. With a best of 2:05:12, he may not have the Ethiopians’ raw speed, but his experience in major marathons, from London to New York and Valencia, makes him one to watch.

Richard Ringer, the ruthless finisher

The 2022 European marathon champion in Munich, Richard Ringer is the archetypal championship racer. His best of 2:05:36 will not trouble East Africa, but his tactical nous and blistering finish are his greatest weapons. Ringer has already shown that he knows how to bide his time and strike at exactly the right moment.

Amanal Petros, Germany’s most Kenyan runner

With a time of 2:04:58, Amanal Petros is one of the few Europeans to approach Kenyan and Ethiopian standards. Training for much of the year in Kenya’s highlands, he has made steady progress over the past five years. His appetite for fast races could carry him into the world top five.

Ryota Kondo and Kyohei Hosoya, Japan’s hopes

At home, Japan has no intention of making up the numbers. Ryota Kondo (2:05:39) and Kyohei Hosoya (2:05:58) represent the country’s new generation. Tokyo’s famously passionate crowd could give them an extra lift. The fervour of the 2021 Olympics is still fresh in the memory: Tokyo knows how to elevate its marathoners.

The weight of history

At the World Championships, the men’s marathon has almost always been dominated by East Africa. From Douglas Wakiihuri’s victory for Kenya in 1987 to Tamirat Tola’s win in Eugene in 2022, the pattern is clear. Europeans, by contrast, have collected only a handful of medals, including Abel Antón’s titles for Spain in the 1990s. The reigning world champion is Victor Kiplangat, crowned in Budapest in 2023 after dominating the race in 2:08:53. Tokyo could usher in a new Ethiopian, Kenyan or Ugandan champion, extending the tradition.

All the ingredients are there: a field of rare depth, a historic Kenya-Ethiopia rivalry, ambitious European outsiders and a host nation ready to erupt for its marathoners. Championship marathons are often decided by pacing, heat, humidity, bluff and patience. And with its long avenues and passionate crowds, Tokyo could deliver one of the finest battles of recent years.