Tokyo World Championships: Tigst Assefa vs. The Rest of the World in the Women’s Marathon
World records, Olympic champions, hungry outsiders— the women’s marathon at the Tokyo World Championships is shaping up to be legendary. Tigst Assefa reigns supreme on the clock, but the depth of talent behind her promises a thrilling showdown. Could France’s Manon Trapp pull off the surprise?
Never before has a championship women’s marathon featured so many runners under 2:20. The arrival of Ethiopia’s Tigst Assefa and her jaw-dropping records has changed the game. But in a championship, times matter less than strategy and experience. And in Tokyo, with September’s heavy, humid conditions, the race could produce unexpected drama when the gun goes off on September 14 at 12:30 a.m. (French time).
| Tigst Assefa, the Undisputed Queen
In Berlin 2023, Assefa obliterated the world record with 2:11:53—a time that seemed unthinkable just five years ago. At 28, the Ethiopian represents a new era in women’s marathoning, where paces that once belonged to men are now the benchmark for women. She can churn out 3:07 per kilometer—and do it 42 times in a row. Her secret? A lightning-fast transition from middle distance (she ran 1:59 in the 800m) to the marathon, an almost freakish tolerance for pain, and flawless running economy. But history shows even queens can stumble. At Boston 2024, she dropped out, proof that her model isn’t infallible. Tokyo will be the test: absolute domination or her first big championship defeat?
| Ethiopia’s Depth
Sutume Asefa Kebede, the dangerous teammate
With a 2:15:55 PB, Sutume Asefa Kebede is one of the few who can hold Assefa’s furious pace. She’s won big marathons in Dubai and Seoul and knows how to thrive in a pack. Her mission? Stick close to Tigst and launch a surprise attack late.
Tigist Ketema, the new wave
In January 2024 in Dubai, Tigist Ketema stunned the world with a 2:16:07 on her debut. At just 25, she’s the future of Ethiopian marathoning. She lacks experience but makes up for it with audacity—and if the race gets tactical, she could be a podium wildcard.
➜ With Assefa, Kebede, and Ketema, Ethiopia brings a trio capable of locking down the race and forcing a brutal pace.
| Kenya: Championship Experience
Peres Jepchirchir, the master of the big stage
When it comes to championships, nobody does it better than Peres Jepchirchir. The Kenyan Olympic champion in Tokyo 2021 and double half marathon world champion has what others lack: tactical genius. Her 2:16:16 PB keeps her near the top of the charts, but more importantly, she knows how to win when the pressure peaks. She’s triumphed in Boston and New York under tough conditions. Tokyo 2025 could be her chance to spoil Assefa’s coronation.
Magdalyne Masai, the metronome
With a 2:18:58 best, Magdalyne Masai isn’t a record-chaser but is relentlessly consistent. Her ability to hit around 2:19 in any conditions makes her a podium threat—especially if the heat or a reckless start shatters the favorites.
| Outsiders to Watch
Lonah Chemtai Salpeter, the seasoned veteran
Israel’s Lonah Chemtai Salpeter, the 2022 European champion, already owns a rich résumé: World bronze in Eugene 2022 and multiple international wins. Her 2:17:45 PB proves she has the speed, but it’s her mental toughness that sets her apart. Able to grind alone for miles, she could pounce if the race blows up early.
Stella Chesang, Uganda’s rising star
A former 10,000m specialist, Chesang has made a seamless marathon transition. With a 2:18:26, she’s already cracked the world top 20. At 28, she leads Uganda’s new wave. Less experienced but incredibly resilient, she could cling to the lead pack deep into the race.
Susanna Sullivan, America’s dark horse
With a 2:21:56 PB, Susanna Sullivan doesn’t have the weapons to win. But a world top 10 is within reach—a huge achievement for an American. If the pace yo-yos, she could steadily climb the rankings.
Manon Trapp… why not?
Ranked 15th worldwide (2:23:38 in Seville 2024), France’s Manon Trapp is the lone Frenchwoman in the field after national record holder Mekdes Woldu withdrew in mid-August. The 25-year-old from Savoy is motivated after missing the Paris Olympics last summer. With the pressure off and revenge in the air, a top 10 finish isn’t out of the question—maybe even better.
| The Weight of History
The women’s marathon at the Worlds is often more open than the men’s. East Africa usually dominates, but Europeans and Asians have occasionally crashed the party. In Doha 2019, Kenya’s Ruth Chepngetich conquered suffocating heat. In Eugene 2022, Ethiopia’s Gotytom Gebreslase claimed gold in 2:18:11.
Tokyo 2025 could cement Assefa’s legacy—or remind us that championships always deliver surprises: from fuel strategy to climate management to surviving wave after wave of attacks.
Possible Scenarios
- Assefa domination: The Ethiopian hammers a 2:14–2:15 pace, and no one survives.
- Tactical chess match: Jepchirchir slows it down, all eyes on Assefa. The pack stays tight until 35K, then explodes into a sprint.
- Peloton meltdown: Tokyo’s heat punishes reckless starts, and outsiders like Salpeter or Chesang steal the podium.
The 2025 women’s marathon at the World Championships could be the race of the year. Tigst Assefa starts as the clear favorite, but the depth is astonishing. Jepchirchir brings experience, Kebede and Ketema bring youth, Salpeter and Chesang bring fearless ambition. Tokyo might crown an uncontested queen… or deliver one of those plot twists only marathon history knows how to write.
Dorian VUILLET
Journalist
