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Tokyo World Championships: Ethiopia and Kenya Aim to Rule the Marathon as Outsiders Lie in Wait
Between record-shattering times and the tactical chess of championship racing, the women’s marathon at the 2025 World Championships promises to be nothing short of a showdown. Ethiopia brings an armada of dream-like times, Kenya counters with its fearless new generation, and both Europe and Japan dare to dream of a breakthrough on home soil.
Tokyo is not just hosting the World Athletics Championships from September 13 to 21 — for one marathon morning, it will become the stage of a clash of titans. On September 15 (00:30 CET), 96 athletes from 47 nations will take to the streets of the Japanese capital. Behind the depth of the field, a few names shine brighter: men capable of rewriting history and threatening long-standing records. At the forefront lies a rivalry that has lasted more than thirty years — Ethiopia vs. Kenya. Two distance-running superpowers, loaded with firepower.
| Ethiopia’s Armada
Deresa Geleta, the metronome
At 29, Deresa Geleta (2:02:38 PB, Valencia 2023) is Ethiopia’s anchor. Ranked 5th in the world, he is a major contender for gold. His strength lies in consistency: multiple marathons between 2:03 and 2:04 put him firmly in the lineage of Haile Gebrselassie and Kenenisa Bekele. Never a medalist at a global championship, he dreams of turning his clockwork regularity into world gold.
Tadese Takele, the flamboyant newcomer
Still spoken of as a “new face,” Tadese Takele (23) already blasted a 2:03:23 in London this season, making him the 8th fastest man in history. Known for aggressive early pacing, he may well light the fuse halfway through. For many, he embodies Ethiopia’s generational shift.
Tesfaye Deriba, the dark horse
Often overlooked, Tesfaye Deriba clocked a strong 2:04:13 in Seoul last year. A rugged runner who thrives on demanding routes, he could turn Tokyo’s humid, unpredictable conditions to his advantage.
➜ Combined, Ethiopia’s big three average a staggering 2:03:45. Enough to give any peloton nightmares.
| Kenya Strikes Back
Vincent Kipkemoi Ngetich, the heir apparent
At 26, Vincent Kipkemoi Ngetich already looks like the future of Kenyan marathoning. His 2:03:13 (Berlin 2023) earned him prodigy status. Able to hold brutal paces with little visible strain, he recalls a young Eliud Kipchoge. Tokyo could mark his true arrival on the world stage.
Hillary Kipkoech, the disruptor
With a 2:04:45 PB, Hillary Kipkoech is the definition of unpredictability. Explosive attacks on hills, sudden accelerations, and fearless tactics make him dangerous in any championship setting.
Erick Kiplagat Sang & Kennedy Kimutai, the lieutenants
Behind the stars, Sang (2:04:30) and Kimutai (2:05:27) give Kenya enviable depth. In a tactical race, they could be deployed to wear down rivals.
| The Chasing Pack
Victor Kiplangat, the defending champion
The Ugandan stunned the world in Budapest 2023, mastering the heat and clocking 2:08:53 for gold. With a 2:05:05 PB, he returns determined to prove he still belongs at the very top.
Othmane El Goumri, Morocco’s model of consistency
At 33, El Goumri knows the game. A 2:05:12 man with experience in London, New York, and Valencia, he remains a name to watch.
Richard Ringer, Europe’s tactical assassin
The 2022 European champion thrives on championship racing. His 2:05:36 PB may not scare East Africa, but his patience and lethal finishing kick have undone bigger names before.
Amanal Petros, Germany’s East African-trained star
Clocking 2:04:58, Petros is among the rare Europeans operating at near-Kenyan pace. Training long stretches at altitude in Kenya, he’s built a steady upward trajectory. A fast race could put him in the global top 5.
Ryota Kondo & Kyohei Hosoya, Japan’s local hopes
The host nation brings new blood: Kondo (2:05:39) and Hosoya (2:05:58). In marathon-mad Tokyo, the home crowd could fuel them into contention. Japan knows how to lift its athletes — the 2021 Olympics proved it.
| History’s Weight
World Championship marathons have long been ruled by East Africa. From Douglas Wakiihuri (Kenya) in 1987 to Tamirat Tola (Ethiopia) in 2022, the pattern is clear. Europe has had rare breakthroughs — Abel Antón in the 1990s, for instance — but only sporadic success. Victor Kiplangat’s victory in Budapest in 2023 was another chapter in this dominance. Tokyo could well see another East African coronation — or a rare upset.
Possible Scenarios
- Blistering pace from the gun: Takele or Ngetich push early, leaving only the 2:03 men standing. A war of attrition decides the medals.
- Cagey championship tactics: Geleta and Ringer bide their time, the pack stays bunched, and the last 5K turns into a mass sprint.
- Japanese dream: Kondo or Hosoya capitalize on hesitation, slip away late, and ignite the home crowd with a podium finish.
Everything is in place: one of the deepest fields in history, the eternal Kenya–Ethiopia rivalry, ambitious outsiders from Europe, and a host nation ready to roar. Championship marathons are battles of heat, humidity, patience, and nerve. And Tokyo’s long avenues, lined with passionate fans, could deliver one of the most dramatic races in years.
Dorian VUILLET
Journalist
