Can Andreas Almgren win the 2026 New York City Marathon on his debut?

What's at stake on Sunday goes beyond a simple result. Andreas Almgren has a chance to shock the marathon world and write his name into running history. A quick look back: on September 20 in Copenhagen, Almgren became the first European to be crowned half marathon world champion since... 1996. Thirty years, an eternity. To add even more symbolism, the 2026 edition celebrates 50 years since the first race through all five boroughs, in 1976. All the ingredients are there for the Swede to shine. But the competition will be fierce, notably Benson Kipruto, who won here last year.

Andreas Almgren, an atypical profile obsessed with data

His name is now on every running fan's lips. His unconventional double threshold training, his staggering mileage, his devastating finishes in competition... In just a few years, Almgren has become one of the best runners in the world. And yet nothing really destined him for long distance and the marathon. A footballer first, he only turned to the track at 18 and quickly became an 800m specialist (bronze medal at the U20 World Championships in Eugene). Then several major injuries forced him to rethink everything. While recovering from a sacral stress fracture, he decided to change his training method and adopted double threshold, the famous Norwegian method popularized by Jakob Ingebrigtsen. Less intensity, more volume. With that kind of training, he naturally moved up to the 5000m, the 10,000m and also the roads, where the effort is less brutal than on the track.

Another rarity among professionals: Almgren builds his own training plans, then submits them to Urban Aruhn, his coach since 2012. His approach is methodical, almost scientific. Alongside his running career, he worked as a data analyst at Svexa, a tech company focused on performance optimization. He applies that analytical mindset every day, running most of his sessions with lactate testing. The Swede is a stickler for detail. He is obsessed with performance and chases precision. The treadmill is certainly one of his favorite tools, because it lets him control pace and conditions perfectly.

In short, Almgren is a training fanatic and a big believer in controlled intensity. His many injuries taught him to listen to his body more and to dose every effort properly. Yes, his volume is still enormous, but unlike many elite athletes, he never goes all out in training. Andreas Almgren belongs to that new generation of athletes who hunt every marginal gain to optimize performance. His sponsor Nomio even calls him the most data-driven athlete in the world.

A 2026 season that launched him to the top of the world

The Swede had already made noise in 2025. In June, he took the European 5000m record in Stockholm with 12:44.27. In September, he won world 10,000m bronze in Tokyo, just 0.25 seconds behind France's Jimmy Gressier. Six weeks later, he ran 58:41 at the Valencia Half Marathon, becoming the first European under 59 minutes. Colossal. And the best was yet to come...

2026 only confirmed his breakout. In January, he ran 26:45 at the Valencia 10K, a European record. He ran the exact same time a month later in Castellón, but finished only third, behind France's Yann Schrub, who snatched the continental record with 26:43. In May, he laced up the spikes again and ran 7:26.48 for 3000m at the Diamond League opener in China. Then came championship season. In August in Birmingham, he won the European Championships 10,000m in a solo effort, in 27:23.44. That day he towered over a field demoralized by his ease, finishing 19 seconds clear of second place...

Track, road, the Swede dominates on every front. But his biggest feat came on September 20, at the World Road Running Championships in Copenhagen. Almgren faced heavyweights like Nicholas Kipkorir and Joshua Cheptegei. He stayed with the lead group until the last 600 meters, then unleashed a blistering kick to take his first world title. The crowning moment. Along the way, he lowered his European half marathon record to 58:06.

© European Athletics

His build-up for New York

New York was no random choice. Almgren circled it back in November 2025 because of the way the race unfolds. The elites run without pacers here, and the Swede reckons he is better suited to a head-to-head battle than to a fast, time-driven course like Valencia. His plan has been clear from the start: stay with the leaders, then win it in the sprint. The clock doesn't matter in New York (the course has 250 m of elevation gain). Only the win, and the place, count.

His preparation would impress any purist. Used to averaging around 200 km a week, he logged more than 2,000 km over his last ten weeks of training before the race. Monumental.

One session in particular set the running world buzzing. Ten days before the Copenhagen worlds, he ran a 40 km progressive long run, split into four 10 km blocks.

Conner Mantz, the American marathon record holder, spent a week training with him in Sweden. Even though he is used to very hard training himself, he admitted being impressed by the volume and by how easy Andreas Almgren makes it look. His win in Copenhagen was no surprise, then.

For the final stretch of his training block, Almgren flew to Flagstaff for an altitude camp in the United States. Nothing was left to chance. Rest and easy days were respected. And nutrition was fully dialed in: for months he has been training his gut to absorb around 120 g of carbs per hour on his long runs. The Swede looks to be in the shape of his life and finally ready for one of the biggest challenges of his career: his marathon debut. This one promises to be epic.

I'm going in with a lot of confidence, I don't know if it's hubris, but the preparation went much better than expected. [...] I'm going in with this childlike naivety that I'm going to run for the win. [...] Why not me?

Stiff competition: Kipruto will be hard to beat

For his baptism of fire in New York, Almgren will face fierce opposition. Ten men in the field have already run under 2:05... The top favorite is Benson Kipruto. At 35, the Kenyan has the fastest PB in the field, 2:02:16, the course record in Tokyo in 2024. His real strength is his ability to win the big ones. He already has four Majors to his name: Boston 2021, Chicago 2022, Tokyo 2024 and New York 2025. He is also the only man to have won all three American Majors. Last year, he won in New York by three hundredths of a second ahead of Alexander Mutiso, the closest finish in the race's history (2:08:09). We all remember that iconic photo of the two men crossing the line shoulder to shoulder in Central Park. The Kenyan is still in great shape this year. In April, he ran 2:02:50 in Boston for a strong third place.

Kipruto's profile has everything needed to wreck Almgren's plans. His wins in Chicago and Tokyo came from moves made late in the race. And in New York last year, he won the sprint in Central Park. He knows this course very well. He has home-course advantage.

I have no problem with that (editor's note: Almgren's race plan), because it's a debut. And for a debut, you have to be patient enough to run from the first to the 26th mile. Me, I'll run my own race. I've been running marathons for ten years. I have the experience, I'm ready.

© New York Road Runners

Behind him, the list of contenders is long:

• Ethiopia's Deresa Geleta (2:02:38), second in Tokyo last year, and Kenya's CyBrian Kotut (2:03:22), both making their New York debut

• Two past winners, the Netherlands' Abdi Nageeye (2024, 2:04:20) and Kenya's Geoffrey Kamworor (2017 and 2019)

• The two fastest Americans in history: Zouhair Talbi, who ran 2:03:45 in Boston in April, and Conner Mantz, national record holder in 2:04:43 and Almgren's training partner in September

• Italy's Yeman Crippa (2:05:18), a six-time European Championships medalist. Read his pre-race interview

So, can Andreas Almgren really win?

On paper, the race is wide open. Without pacers, New York often starts cautiously, and the slower the opening kilometers, the more Almgren's speed can make the difference late on. We saw it in Copenhagen: the Swede has a huge finish.

But the marathon is still the marathon. Almgren doesn't yet know how his body will respond beyond 35-40 km, on a course that wrecks legs. Across from him, Kipruto is a master of exactly that. He has the experience of these tactical finishes, and his consistency at the top level is remarkable.

Whatever happens Sunday, this marathon will remain a one-off detour for Almgren. He will devote 2027 to the track, with the Beijing worlds in September. His big goal remains the 10,000m at the Los Angeles 2028 Games, “95%” in his own words, even if he doesn't rule out adding the marathon, like Galen Rupp in Rio in 2016. Only after Los Angeles does he plan to switch to the marathon for good.

The New York City Marathon will be broadcast live on L'Équipe from 2:00 p.m. French time.